It is utterly implausible that a mathematical formula should make the future known to us, and those who think it can would once have believed in witchcraft.

We define the art of conjecture, or stochastic art, as the art of evaluating as exactly as possible the probabilities of things, so that in our judgments and actions we can always base ourselves on what has been found to be the best, the most appropriate, the most certain, the best advised; this is the only object of the wisdom of the philosopher and the prudence of the statesman.

Nature always tends to act in the simplest way.